Arab Advisors' Total Country Connectivity Measure (TCCM) 2003 for the Arab World. The Small Four maintain their lead!

April 14, 2004

Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and UAE still lead the Arab countries in the total connectivity measure in 2003, as they did in 2002. Paradoxically, two of these countries are monopoly markets, while Bahrain's cellular market moved to duopoly in 2003. All 13 covered countries -except Oman, Lebanon and Morocco- improved their TCCM score between 2002 and 2003. In Oman, Morocco and Lebanon, the drop in fixed phone lines negatively affected the household penetration measure that pulled down the 2003 TCCM score from their 2002 levels.

The Arab Advisors Group calculates its Total Country Connectivity Measure (TCCM) by adding the household mainlines penetration, GSM penetration, and Internet users penetration rates in each country. The household mainlines penetration is measured by dividing the residential mainlines by the number of households in each country. The TCCM shows the extent of connectivity of individuals in a certain country whether via fixed lines, GSM lines and/or Internet. Off course, there will be an overlap since many individuals will be using these three communications technologies at the same time. However, the measure still yields an accurate and informative picture on the level of ICT services penetration in each country: For example, if a country has a TCCM measure of 60%, this means that at least 40% of the population are not users of any of the three services constituting the measure. While a TCCM score of more than 100% is very positive, it nonetheless, does not mean that all the population uses the services due to overlap of usage.

A new report, "Total Country Connectivity Measure (TCCM) 2003 for the Arab World?" was released to Arab Advisors Group (www.arabadvisors.com) Strategic Research Service subscribers on March 31, 2004. The 5-page report has 8 detailed exhibits and covers the 13 major markets in the Arab World.

This report can be purchased from Arab Advisors Group for only US$ 150. Any investment in this report will count towards a Strategic Research Service subscription should the service be acquired within three months from purchasing the report.

Purchasing the report will also count towards attending the Arab Advisors Group’s Media and Telecommunications Convergence Conference in June 2004 in Amman. http://www.arabadvisors.com/Convergence2004/schedule.htm

"The TCCM for 2003 results revealed that Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and UAE lead the Arab countries in terms of total connectivity followed by Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan, and Oman. Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Algeria, and Morocco scored the lowest on the total connectivity measure." Sami Sunna', Arab Advisors Group's research manager wrote in the report. "Compared to the TCCM score in 2002, five countries moved up the ladder (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria), four countries moved down the ladder (Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria and Morocco), while the four remaining countries maintained their rankings as in the 2002 results (Qatar, UAE, Jordan and Oman)". Mr. Sunna added.

Naturally, the changes in the rankings should not distract from the fact that all countries -except Oman, Lebanon and Morocco- improved their TCCM score between 2002 and 2003. In Oman, Morocco and Lebanon, the drop in fixed phone lines negatively affected the household penetration measure that pulled down the 2003 TCCM score from their 2002 levels. The stagnation of the Lebanese cellular market also had an effect in Lebanon's total score. Lebanon's TCCM score fell from 107% in 2002 to 98% in 2003.

The Arab Advisors Group believes that the Total Country Connectivity Measure (TCCM) defines the overall connectivity in the country. This is explained by the fact that increasing the household mainlines penetration would eventually improve the Internet penetration rates in a country leading to more healthy connectivity levels. Of course, counting in the mobile connectivity actually complements the total connectivity situation.

The Arab Advisors Group's team of analysts in the region has already produced more than 240 reports on the Arab World's communications and media markets. The reports can be purchased individually or received through an annual subscription to Arab Advisors Group’s (www.arabadvisors.com) Strategic Research Services (Media and Telecom). To date, Arab Advisors Group has served more than 130 global and regional companies by providing reliable research analysis and forecasts of Arab communications markets to these clients.